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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: from money/dmp to match


From: Sonic.net
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: from money/dmp to match
Date: Sat, 22 Feb 2003 14:07:36 -0800

Hi Joseph,

11.43% in 15-ptrs translates into 459 point rating
disadvantage, far lower than I expected.  Could you
give us the rest of the data?  I'm more interested
in the closer match up, which I think has more
practical value.

David

----- Original Message -----
From: "Joseph Heled" <address@hidden>
To: "neilkaz" <address@hidden>
Cc: "Sonic.net" <address@hidden>; "'gnubg'" <address@hidden>
Sent: Saturday, February 22, 2003 12:26 PM
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: from money/dmp to match


>
> This is what I get from using the FIBS rating formula
>
> wins 71.07% 1ptrs - implied rating difference 780
>
> Fibs formula for D=780
>
> match length
> 3     5    7    9     11    13    15
> 17%  11%  8.4%  6.3%  4.8% 3.7%  2.9%
>
>
> This is a far cry from (say) the self play 15-ptr rate of 11.43
>
> I conclude that the FIBS rating formula is indeed loaded against the
> stronger players, and this may explain why the BOTS are having "good
> periods" (when playing more against high rated players) and bad ones.
>
> -Joseph
>
> neilkaz wrote:
> > I don't know about FIB's ELO formula but I assure you all that
GamesGrid's
> > is not accurate for longer matches between lopsided opps.
> >
> > To explain further on GG. I feel that if I play one pointers vs much
weaker
> > players I need to win 3/5 or even 5/8 to break even and that actually
> > doesn't seem to be too unreasonable.
> >
> > However, vs the same much weaker players I might need to win 85% of my 9
> > point matches to break even which just isn't possible, IMO. This is also
the
> > reason I rarely play rated matches vs anyone much more than 200 points
less
> > than me. I felt the rating system used by KG's list was more accurate
for
> > matches, but GG changed it to have more points at stake per match.
> >
> > ..neilkaz..
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Sonic.net" <address@hidden>
> > To: "Albert Silver" <address@hidden>; "'neilkaz'"
> > <address@hidden>; <address@hidden>; "'gnubg'"
<address@hidden>
> > Sent: Saturday, February 22, 2003 1:45 PM
> > Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: from money/dmp to match
> >
> >
> >
> >>For my guess I would just use the FIBS rating formula,
> >>but estimate the rating edge as something between
> >>that implied by 1- and 2-point matches.   Something
> >>like 650 rating-points better for the first pairing,
> >>and 170 rating-points better for the second.
> >>
> >>This is obviously not a very precise model.  For
> >>example, I have another pairing where the stronger
> >>player wins 68.13 (cpw, not dmp, so slightly more
> >>than the 67.98) but only wins .52ppg, rather than
> >>your .57.
> >>
> >>David
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Bug-gnubg mailing list
> > address@hidden
> > http://mail.gnu.org/mailman/listinfo/bug-gnubg
> >
> >
>





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