RE: [Bug-gnubg] Re: Strange FIBS ratings

[kvandoel]

Regarding the analysis  of the 30 Albert Silver matches  I have one more
data point:

I re-ran the entire analysis  ovenight at 2-ply (World-Class preset) and
his estimated rating now increased from 1861 +- 23 to 1886 +- 44.  (Note
the 90% conf. interval has doubled).

These numbers give  a good feel for the accuracy  of results obtained at
0-ply  versus 2-ply.   The discrepancy  between the  estimated  and real
rating has  remained the same,  taking the 90% confidence  interval into
account.

Below I give the estimated ratings of his matches at 0-ply and at 2-ply,
again to get a feel for the accuracy of 2-ply versus 0-ply analysis.

0-ply:
(Average of 30 ) 1886 +- 44     Moves: 144    Cubes: 20
                (Nutsch        ) 1935
                (Ronner        ) 1862
                (Silverwind    ) 1811
                (TGTHEGREAT    ) 1765
                (aviator       ) 1920
                (barnicle      ) 1944
                (barrycrooks   ) 1905
                (blackstar     ) 1806
                (d_brisbois    ) 1973
                (dims          ) 1862
                (efive         ) 1846
                (ernest        ) 1879
                (funny         ) 1863
                (glen_dg       ) 1756
                (investor      ) 1792
                (jimbo         ) 2604
                (jimbok        ) 1814
                (metaform      ) 1875
                (nathanie      ) 1857
                (notverylucky  ) 1880
                (otto          ) 1868
                (roeder        ) 1943
                (rogosin       ) 1906
                (sackofjaweea  ) 1870
                (sackofjaweea  ) 1915
                (tfinley       ) 1892
                (thorton       ) 1862
                (thorton       ) 1853
                (tryout        ) 1698
                (tryout        ) 1829

0-ply:
You             (Average of 30 ) 1862 +- 21     Moves: 169    Cubes: 19
                (Nutsch        ) 1922
                (Ronner        ) 1933
                (Silverwind    ) 1844
                (TGTHEGREAT    ) 1733
                (aviator       ) 1940
                (barnicle      ) 1923
                (barrycrooks   ) 1901
                (blackstar     ) 1773
                (d_brisbois    ) 1957
                (dims          ) 1867
                (efive         ) 1836
                (ernest        ) 1886
                (funny         ) 1890
                (glen_dg       ) 1734
                (investor      ) 1813
                (jimbo         ) 1663
                (jimbok        ) 1788
                (metaform      ) 1922
                (nathanie      ) 1807
                (notverylucky  ) 1912
                (otto          ) 1880
                (roeder        ) 1939
                (rogosin       ) 1898
                (sackofjaweea  ) 1847
                (sackofjaweea  ) 1922
                (tfinley       ) 1899
                (thorton       ) 1875
                (thorton       ) 1868
                (tryout        ) 1858
                (tryout        ) 1827

Kees