Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout

[Achim Mueller]

* Øystein Johansen <address@hidden> [070705 09:23]:
> Achim Mueller wrote:
> >>From GammonU:
> > 
> >              BGB    Jellyfish  Snowie 4.5  GnuBG 0.14
> > BGB           -        534        504          481
> > Jellyfish    466        -         428          407
> > Snowie 4.5   496       572         -           489
> > GnuBG 0.14   519       593        511           -
> > 
> 
> It's 25 point matches, isn't it?
> 
> It looks like GNU Backgammon beats them all. Is that the right
> interpretation?
> 
> This was about the result I would expect in a match series. The point is
> that the positions where GNU Backgammon outperforms Snowie is more
> frequent than the positions where Snowie outperforms GNU Backgammon.
> 
> Would anyone estimate the standard deviation of these numbers?

If sqrt(a*b/1000) is correct than it's:


                std.err   sigma      confidence
gnubg/bgb    =   15.79     2.28  ==>  98,8% 
gnubg/snowie =   15.81     1.39  ==>  91,8%
gnubg/jelly  =   15.53    11.98  ==> 100,0% (well, nearly) 

snowie/bgb   =   15.81     0.51  ==>  69,5%
snowie/jelly =   15.64     9.21  ==> 100,0% 

bgb/jelly    =   15.77     4.31  ==> 100,0%


So we can be quite sure that jellyfish will be beat by all other
bots, we can be quite confident that gnubg is better than bgb, we can be
a little confident that gnubg is better than snowie. 

Am I right ith these numbers?

Ciao

Achim