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[Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances
From: |
Mueller Achim |
Subject: |
[Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances |
Date: |
Sat, 2 Aug 2008 17:36:27 +0200 |
Hi folks,
I have a question regarding the error rates and match winning chances.
A
B
Overall Statistics:
Error total EMG (MWC) -3.935 (-28.802%) -4.498
(-25.202%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) -8.3 ( -0.061%) -9.6
( -0.054%)
Snowie error rate -4.0 ( +0.000%)
-4.6 ( +0.000%)
Overall rating Advanced
Advanced
Actual result -50.00%
+50.00%
Luck adjusted result -17.57%
+17.57%
Luck based FIBS rating diff. -139.10
Error based abs. FIBS rating 1966.7 1955.2
Chequerplay errors rating loss 69.9 73.1
Cube errors rating loss 13.4 21.6
Luck Statistics:
Luck total EMG (MWC) -5.700 (-12.144%) -2.564
(+20.291%)
Luck rate mEMG (MWC) -11.5 ( -0.025%) -5.2
( +0.041%)
Luck rating None
None
Some Snowie numbers (same match to 21 point):
Error rate: 3.377 4.441
Match winning chance: 53.27% 46.73%
Average luck rate: -3.669 3.669
using gnubg's Luck adjusted result player B was 67.57% favorite and up
139.10 fibs rating point?! Comparing all these numbers with th Snowie
analysis I'm totally puzzled now. Also see this thread from may: http://www.nabble.com/match-winning-chances-td17190905.html
(which I tried to follow, but ...).
Which gnubg numbers are the most reliable for computing the match
winning chances in a match to a certain amount of points (based on the
error rates)? Is there a formula which can be used for computing match
winning chances for other match lengths based on the given numbers of
a analysis, e.g. take this 21p match and compute the chances in a 13p
match.
Ciao
Achim