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Re: [gnugo-devel] SlugGo v.s. Many Faces

From: David G Doshay
Subject: Re: [gnugo-devel] SlugGo v.s. Many Faces
Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 11:24:27 -0700

On Aug 24, 2004, at 10:22 AM, Douglas Ridgway wrote:

On Mon, 23 Aug 2004, David G Doshay wrote:

[game results...]
So, SlugGo wins about 20 out of 25 from Many Faces. We will continue
this contest against Many Faces until we have 100 games.

Very interesting. I took the liberty to run some numbers on this data (*).
... It seems clear that SlugGo is more than 1/2 stone better
than ManyFaces (p = 0.0053 to get this by flipping coins).

Given that, I don't understand the plan to play more games at a handicap
of 0.5.

Some of it was an attempt to be sure that our numbers are significant, but now that you have done the statistics for us, we can be confident of that. Thanks. Some of it is just the fun of winning; simple positive feedback after
a year of work. ;^)

 If we take the average margin of 31 as indicative of the handicap
level, and use 2*(komi 6.5) as the value of each stone, we estimate SlugGo
as 2.38+0.5 = 2.88 stones better than Many Faces. If this is right, you
ought to be able to show a statistically significant margin at a 1.5 stone
handicap (2 stones, no komi) within a hundred games, probably less. 3
stones is probably the fair handicap, but it would likely require hundreds
of games to determine who was better at three stones.

So that'd be my vote. Give two stones to Many Faces, or take on another
top program, or play against people.

We can try 2 stones against MFG and see what happens. We would like to
try playing a series of games against Go++, but that will be very hard to
automate. We had to do a bit of work just to automate a series of games
against MFG.

We do plan to start a series of games against people, but they will have to be patient people. At the strongest levels we have found so far, it runs about
1/18th the speed of GNU Go.

But before we do either there are some changes I would like to make in the code. I am not happy with the first 5 or so moves and need to implement a

(*) I only see 24 games here, and I threw out the game with the unclear
result, so I worked with 23 games.

I was copying results by hand, so I must have slipped. Sorry. The missed
entry is:
        White wins by 25
from the first set of 15, for which a link to the sgf files is given.


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