[Swarmfest2007] Abstract submission

[Steve Railsback]

Here is my abstract, which I will withdraw if we need the space.

Steve

Name: Steve Railsback
Affiliation: Lang, Railsback & Associates and Humboldt State University
Email: address@hidden
Mailing: 250 California, Arcata CA, USA 95521

Requested presentation type: Oral

Title: State-based Predictive Theory for Modeling Adaptive Behavior of 
Animals (and People?)

Abstract: One of the key challenges of agent-based modeling is finding 
useful models of agent behavior. Ideally we would have theory: general 
concepts that can be applied to specific models. In ecology, adaptive 
behavior of individuals often requires tradeoffs between the benefits of 
feeding more (growth; reproducing sooner and more successfully) and the 
risks (greater exposure to predation). The widely-used "State-based 
dynamic modeling" theory assumes individuals make these tradeoffs by 
optimizing an explicit measure of future fitness, e.g. the expected 
number of offspring at a future reproduction season, equal to the 
probability of surviving to the season times the number of offspring 
produced. The fitness measure depends on both the benefits of feeding 
(avoiding starvation mortality, producing more offspring) and the risks 
(probability of dying due to predation before the reproduction season). 
However, the fitness measure can be optimized only if future conditions 
(food availability, predation risk) are completely predictable. In 
realistic agent-based models, future conditions are typically 
unpredictable and subject to feedback from individual decisions. 
"State-based predictive" theory solves this problem by assuming 
individuals use a simple prediction of future conditions to make 
adaptive decisions, and update their predictions and decisions as 
conditions change. This theory has reproduced a wide variety of observed 
behaviors and trophic interactions in simulated fish...could it also be 
useful for simulating human behavior?

--
Steve Railsback
Lang, Railsback & Associates
Arcata, California
www.LangRailsback.com