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[Bug-gnubg] bots roll out reliability


From: max-d
Subject: [Bug-gnubg] bots roll out reliability
Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2002 11:33:57 +0200

gnubg (O, 0 pts) vs. user (X, 1 pts) (Match to 3)

Move number 22: X on roll, cube decision?

 GNU Backgammon  Position ID: 2LYNAHDsdkYCCA
                 Match ID   : UQlgAAAACAAA
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: gnubg
 | X        O  O  O | O | O  O  O  X       |     0 points
 |          O  O  O | O | O  O  O          |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
v|                  |BAR|                  |     3 point match
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X     X          |
 |             X    |   | X  X  X  X       |     On roll
 |    X        X    |   | X  X  X  X       |     1 point
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: user (Cube: 2)

* user moves 11/9 6/3
Alert: bad move (-4,766%)

Rolled 23 (+3,685%):
     1. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 8/5                    MWC:  54,39%
       0,372 0,199 0,009 - 0,628 0,054 0,002
     2. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 4/1                    MWC:  53,49% ( -0,90%)
       0,373 0,190 0,008 - 0,627 0,086 0,003
     3. Cubeful 2-ply    8/5 4/2                      MWC:  53,15% ( -1,25%)
       0,364 0,181 0,007 - 0,636 0,078 0,003
     4. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 6/3                    MWC:  52,85% ( -1,54%)
       0,351 0,179 0,008 - 0,649 0,057 0,002
     5. Cubeful 2-ply    6/3 4/2                      MWC:  52,50% ( -1,89%)
       0,355 0,170 0,007 - 0,645 0,079 0,003
*   13. Cubeful 2-ply    11/9 6/3                     MWC:  49,63% ( -4,77%)
       0,306 0,148 0,006 - 0,694 0,060 0,002


Output generated Tue Jul 30 10:24:15 2002
by GNU Backgammon 0.12 (Text Export version 1.11)

in this position  Gnubg 2plies and JF lv 7 do not agree at all !
I wanted to verify whether each bot still gave different results with
the same roll out settings .

if so ,bots's roll out reliability would be likely unreliable
(at least for one of them)


Gnubg (wc++) does not even consider Jf level 7 best move

4/1 11/9

For this move ,Jf gives eq (X) -0.370
For GNubg move (13/11 8/5) JF gives eq (X) =-0.480

I rolled the positions out 720 times (JF level 6 rollouts)

after Gnubg best move
        W     G/BG  BG
O wins 75.5  13.1  0.4
x wins 24.5  9.7   1.2

eq(o)=0.537 sd 0.015
720 games equivalent to 6563


after JF best move
        W     G/BG  BG
O wins 73.6  14  0.4
x wins 26.4  8.9  0.6

eq(o)=0.52 sd 0.015
720 games equivalent to 5724

seems JF evaluation is wrong since the roll out does not confirm the #eq.


I have problems to understand how to use Gnubg's roll out !

what are GNUbg's equivalent settings for jf level 6 roll out ?

what about GNUbg rolling this position out ?

Is there any interest ,for Gnubg team developpers ,
 to report here such positions (main bots disagree by a lot )?

Thanks !
md.





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