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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Analysis of race rollouts

From: Joseph Heled
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Analysis of race rollouts
Date: Fri, 01 Nov 2002 06:37:37 +1300
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Ian Shaw wrote:
From: Joseph Heled [mailto:address@hidden
Sent: 29 October 2002 16:55

The OSRDB makes the play that bears off in fewest average moves. The real 
objective is to bear off in fewer moves than your opponent. Usually these are 
the same thing, but not always, as we discussed above. Many of the times when 
one needs to make desperation  plays would be included in the two-sided 
database, so we can forget about them. There are still times in longer races 
when it is right to make a desperation play, either pull off a miracle win or 
to improve your gammon chances when the win is certain. I'm wondering whether 
there is a way to take account of these factors while using the OSRDB.
The distribution of rolls required to bear off for either side is appromimately 
normal, and Jorn is already thniking about including this in the database.
Is there some algorithm that compares two independent normal distributions, and 
which can maximize P(Ra < Rb) where Ra and Rb are the number of rolls each side 
requires to bear off? This sounds like the sort of thing that statisticians would 
have got nailed by now.

The power (and limitation) of the OSR is that it is one sided, i.e. plays each side independently, so that it has no notion if it needs to make desperation plays or not. Even if it did, I doubt it is possible to find those moves cheaply.


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