[Top][All Lists]
[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13
From: |
Joern Thyssen |
Subject: |
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13 |
Date: |
Mon, 9 Jun 2003 14:28:30 +0000 |
User-agent: |
Mutt/1.4.1i |
On Mon, Jun 09, 2003 at 07:14:08AM -0700, Rod Roark wrote
> As others mentioned, there's a square root involved in the
> calculation of standard deviation. I believe there are a
> couple of different ideas in use as to the exact formula.
>
> However I don't think you want this calculation anyway. It
> is an attempt to answer the question "how much do the
> results differ from the average?". Well if each result
> must be either 0 or 1 and the average is somewhere around
> 0.5, then they will all differ by 0.5. This is not an
> interesting number.
>
> The question to answer is, "how significant is the result
> from 100 matches?". This depends in part on "how much does
> a match depend on skill, and how much on luck?". The answer
> to that last question is elusive.
I know how to calculate the luck by analysing the matches and extracting
the total luck.
The 95% confidence interval is calculated as 1.96 * std.dev. So with 100
matches and a final result of 56 wins to gnubg and std.dev of 0.5, I
get:
56% +/- 98%
What I don't understand is that if I had played 100000000000 matches and
gnubg won 54000000000 of them, I would still have a std.dev of 0.5, thus
I still get:
56% +/- 98%
So what did I get wrong?
Jørn
- [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Albert Silver, 2003/06/08
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Joern Thyssen, 2003/06/09
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Nardy Pillards, 2003/06/09
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Rod Roark, 2003/06/09
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13,
Joern Thyssen <=
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Rod Roark, 2003/06/09
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Joern Thyssen, 2003/06/09
- RE: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Albert Silver, 2003/06/09
- RE: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Albert Silver, 2003/06/09
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Joern Thyssen, 2003/06/09
- RE: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Albert Silver, 2003/06/09
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Joern Thyssen, 2003/06/09
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Joseph Heled, 2003/06/09
- RE: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13, Albert Silver, 2003/06/09