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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13

From: Joern Thyssen
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Snowie 4 vs. GNU 0.13
Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2003 15:52:42 +0000
User-agent: Mutt/1.4.1i

On Mon, Jun 09, 2003 at 04:31:53PM +0100, Ian Shaw wrote
> Putting it in English, is the following a reasonable interpretation?
> Based on the results of 100 games, we are 95% confident that GnuBg can
> expect to win between 46% and 56% of matches against Snowie 4.
> However, luck is still playing a big part in the results, and if we
> account for the luck in those 100 matches, we are 95% confident that
> GnuBg will win between 48.6% and 51.4% of matches.

I'm not sure that this is the correct statistical interpretation, but it
seems reasonable.

About the luck: we account for luck in an approximative way -- not
exact. If our measure of luck is very bad, we may introduce bias in the

Anyway, I have the necessary programs to analyse luck etc, so if
anyone want run a longer collection of matches I can do the necessary
statistical analysis.


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