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## RE: [Bug-gnubg] Luck analysis question

 From: Albert Silver Subject: RE: [Bug-gnubg] Luck analysis question Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2003 18:22:25 -0300

```Yes, it did help as does this illustration. Thanks guys. :-)

Albert

P.S.  I have already found some interesting differences in decisions by
GNU 0.14. The first and foremost has to be its decision to play in money
52 as 13/8 13/11 as well as at 0-0 in a 7 pt. match

> -----Original Message-----
> address@hidden On Behalf Of Joern Thyssen
> Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2003 2:25 PM
> To: Albert Silver
> Cc: 'GNU Backgammon Bugs'
> Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Luck analysis question
>
> On Wed, Jun 11, 2003 at 11:28:22AM -0300, Albert Silver wrote
> > Perhaps one interesting way to examine this would be to run GNU
0.12,
> > the version that played sgainst Snowie 3.2, and have it analyze the
luck
> > factor and see what the results are.
> >
> > The reason I was a bit concerned is this: the luck is NOT
independent of
> > the evaluation of the moves and positions as I see it. It is
entirely
> > dependent in fact. Suppose in a given position, I say the equity is
> > 0.400, move A is the best giving that 0.400 equity, and move B is a
> > blunder leading to only 0.250. Mind you, this is because I do not
> > realize that mave B is in fact stronger and leads to 0.450. You
> > correctly play move B, I play a move that does nothing still
thinking it
> > is only 0.250, and you play a move that improves the position by a
mere
> > 0.050. When I analyze this new resulting position, I now see the
truth
> > of it and see that the current equity is 0.500, however having
misjudged
> > it previously will declare you're a lucky guy whose move led to a
0.250
> > gain.
>
>
> BTW, you can actually easily calculate the luck for a given position
> using the new temperature map.
>
>  GNU Backgammon  Position ID: 4HPhQSDgc/ABMA
>                  Match ID   : cAkbAAAAAAAA
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: gnubg
>  | X        O  O    |   | O              X |     0 points
>  | X           O    |   | O              X |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  | X                |   | O                |
> v|                  |BAR|                  |     (Cube: 1)
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |     Rolled 66
>  | O           X  O |   | X              O |     0 points
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: jth
> Pip counts: O 157, X 167
>
> Using the temperature map I see that my 1-ply equity is +0.016, and
the
> 0-ply equity for 66 is +0.580 (assuming I move 24/18(2) 13/7(2)*).
>
> Thus, my luck from rolling 66 is 0.564.
>
> Jørn
>
>
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