Re: [Bug-gnubg] Wrong cube errors categories in analysis statistics panel

[Holger]

At 09:40 03.10.2003, Joern Thyssen wrote:
> On Thu, Oct 02, 2003 at 10:21:13PM +0200, Holger wrote
> > At 02:09 01.10.2003, Jim Segrave wrote:
> >
> > >> Does someone know why getMatchPoints() does this and whether this is
> > >> intended?
> > >
> > >I can't reproduce this.
> >
> > Here is an example:
> > Attached is a game with one wrong double and a missed double. To 
> reproduce:
> > run gnubg in gdb, set a breakpoint just after line 311 (the call to
> > getMatchPoints), load the attached game, and invoke Analyse/Session
> > statistics.
> > Here this gives for the wrong double (the first decision):
> >
> > (gdb) p aaarPointsMatch
> > $2 = {{{0.26412797, 0.225260854}, {0.49239853, 0.49239853},
> >        {0.720825553, 0.785499096}, {0.969819069, 0.785499096}},
> >       {{0.279174447, 0.214500904}, {0.507601678, 0.507601678},
> >        {0.73587203, 0.774739146}, {0.984015822, 0.774739146}}}
> >
> > Analyse/Market window (GUI version) with the wrong double selected gives:
> > Market window for player pl0
> >     Dead cube Fully live
> > TP   26.413%   21.450%
> > DP   49.240%   49.240%
> > CP   72.083%   77.474%
> > TG   96.982%   77.474%
> >
> > Market window for player pl1
> >     Dead cube Fully live
> > TP   27.917%   22.526%
> > DP   50.760%   50.760%
> > CP   73.587%   78.550%
> > TG   98.402%   78.550%
>
> Sorry, I've lost track of this thread. Where is the error in the numbers
> above?

It's the order in the array. aaarPointsMatch[0][0][1]==0.225260854, but 
22.526% is given for pl1 fully live. Similar for 0.785499096, 0.214500904 
and 0.774739146.

> > >> I'm wondering about the following: The winning probability
> > >> (aarOutput[ 0 ][ OUTPUT_WIN ]) doesn't include any added value for
> > >> gammon or bg chances (aarOutput[ 0 ][ OUTPUT_WINGAMMON ] and
> > >> aarOutput[ 0 ][ OUTPUT_WINBACKGAMMON ]). Those match points (DP, CP,
> > >> TG) have an entity of cubeful equity, don't they? And I think
> > >> equities are calculated as the sum of winning chances, gammon
> > >> chances and bg chances, thus include gammon and bg value. If all
> > >> this was correct so far, then I suppose these 2 values can't be
> > >> compared.
> > >
> > >This seems a good point - I think picking the point needs to be done
> > >in terms of MWC, it's not enough to do equity, since in some match
> > >points, gammons are irre;evant.
> >
> > Ok, I'll compare them with an entity of MWC.
>
> NO NO NO!

Ok, I'll stand still. :-)

> The values returned by getMatchPoints *must* be compared with a gwc,
> i.e., arOutput[ OUTPUT_WIN ]!!!!

What I meant with the above was to convert arOutput[0][ OUTPUT_WIN 
]  _and_  the calculated divider to MWC by sending them through eq2mwc. But 
even this seems to be wrong as I'm beginning to understand the nature of 
all those figures by now. (I guess I'd need someone to explain me the 
origins of MWC, GWC, equity and the match points. Or does somebody have a 
reference on this?)

> The numbers above say that pl0 can take a double when he has a game
> winning chance of 21.450% - 26.413% depending on recube-vig. The numbers
> do *not* say anything about the MWC he must have to take!!!

That they are not MWC, but GWC I understood.

I'll give notice when I'm done. Maybe you could please have a checking look 
then.

Regards,

        Holger