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[Bug-gnubg] Understanding the stats

From: Albert Silver
Subject: [Bug-gnubg] Understanding the stats
Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2006 18:46:01 -0300

I'm trying to understand the money game stats, but clearly am having no luck, so I'm requesting help.

I played a session, albeit poorly, which I lost 10 points to 13 over 7 games. According to the analysis, I played better overall, better in checkers, and better with the cube. Despite this, and despite losing, I am told I was the luckier of the two. Highly disputable IMHO.

                                      Opponent             Me        
Overall Statistics:
Error rate (total)                    -3.523 ( -4.811)     -2.269 ( -3.939)    
Error rate (per decision)              - 25.7 ( -0.035)      -14.2 ( -0.025)    
Equiv. Snowie error rate               -11.0                 -7.1              
Overall rating                        Casual player        Intermediate        
Actual result                          +3.000               -3.000            
Luck adjusted result                   +1.958               -1.958            
Advantage (actual) in ppg             +0.4286              - 0.4286            
95% confidence interval (ppg)          3.1388               3.1388            
Advantage (luck adjusted) in ppg      +0.2797              -0.2797            
95% confidence interval (ppg)          0.9709               0.9709            

I usually try to find out what my effective edge was over my opponent, but I don't know what to look at here. For example, I ran this through Snowie 4, which said he played at - 10.7 and I played at -6.7, and also says I was a favorite by 0.122 points per game in this session.


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