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Re: [Bug-gnubg] OT: rigged dice on on-line BG sites

From: Jonathan Kinsey
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] OT: rigged dice on on-line BG sites
Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2007 08:51:46 +0000
User-agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; en-GB; rv: Gecko/20061207 Thunderbird/ Mnenhy/

Massimiliano Maini wrote:
> Jim Segrave <address@hidden> wrote on 01/03/2007 09:24:59:
>> I don't think you can make a meaningful judgement as to whether the
>> rolls were random in a single match were manipulated. For that matter
>> I have my doubts whether even a large series of matches - say 10,000
>> moves or so, would allow one to give an informed opinion.
> The method I have in mind will not tell you that the dice was really
> random (balanced). 
> Technically, it's not a test on the statistical hypothesis of each face
> of a dice having probability equal to 1/6. As you said, this would take
> a lot of moves and, by the way, will not help in verifying that the on-
> line site software hasn't overriden the random number generator on a 
> specific position in a specific match.

Wouldn't the luck analysis do this?  Assuming a server was setup to
favour the under dog, I guess you could find a pattern between the luck
results and the rating differences in quite a small sample of games?


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