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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout


From: Joseph Heled
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout
Date: Fri, 6 Jul 2007 10:43:58 +1200

Ok, one would have to derive the confidence interval given all
probabilities and N=1000. perhaps I will do it later (assuming I can
figure it out), or maybe someone else can.

On 7/6/07, Achim Mueller <address@hidden> wrote:
* Joseph Heled <address@hidden> [070705 23:51]:
> I am not sure what you try to show here, but if we can't show that
> gnubg is individually better than bgb or sn, the likelihood it is
> better than both is still harder to show

Then in other words: you talk about the likelihood of _one_ bot being
better or not in a direct competition to another bot (a match or a set
of matches between two certain bots). This is like a tennis match
between two players.

I talk about the likelihood of a bot being better compared to another
bot in a contest, where both bots play each other _and_ two other bots.

This is like a football league. I want to know, whether Bayern Munich is
signifant better than Werder Bremen in case Bayern has scored 72 out of
102 points and Werder has scored only 59 in the same amount of 34 games.
No matter how the direct matches were Bayern - Bremen 6:0; 6:0 or 0:6;
2-1 or whatever.

Even if two teams play 1:1 and 2:2 within a season it might be that one
team scores _significant_ more points than the other and also receives
the title and the cup.

Same occurs in this bot shootout. Gnubg scored 1623, bgblitz 1519. The
direct set of 1000 matches has no statistical meaning. The difference of
104 point might have. Do you see the point now?

Ciao

Achim




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