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[Bug-gnubg] match winning chances

From: Thomas Koch
Subject: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances
Date: Mon, 12 May 2008 18:11:24 +0200

Is there a possibility to derive (e.g. calculate) my match winning chances against a certain person from the gnubg error rate shown in the player records? Let's say my error rate in the player record is 0.0200 and my opponents error rate is 0.0300. How can I calculate my match winning chances for a 5pt, 11pt, 25pt- match etc.? I would like to get something like the "luck adjusted result" from the match statistics which tells me that I am e.g. 60% favorite to win a 5pter against this opponent. What is the formula?

Thanks in advance,
Thomas Koch

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