Re : Re : Re : [Bug-gnubg] Odd/even effect: post I made on bgonline

[Massimiliano Maini]

>
>De : Joseph Heled <address@hidden>
>
>That is why getting a strong 0-ply is of the utmost importance.
>I am not sure what is the state of other bots.

We do agree on this, getting a strong 0ply NN is a must.
Actually that's why I was inquiring to know if the training
methodology of gnubg NN could be responsible of this kind of
behavior.

This whole odd/even effect thing seems to be much more visible
in gnubg than in other bots and it's the source of (possibly wrong)
beliefs like "gnubg 3ply cube is worse/better than 2ply cube"
or "2ply cube is worse/better than 3ply cube for closed out
positions" etc.

In the particular position (which is an extreme case):

    GNU Backgammon  Position ID: DwAAsN22AYgAAA 
                    Match ID   : MAHgAAAAAAAA 
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+  O: gnubg 
    | O  O  O  O  O  O |   |                  |  0 points 
    | O  O  O  O  O  O |   |                  |  On roll 
    |    O             |   |                  |   
    |                  |   |                  |   
    |                  |   |                  |   
    |                  |BAR|                  |^ 7 point match (Cube: 1) 
  X |                  |   |                  |   
 XX | X                |   |                  |   
 XX | X                |   |                  |   
 XX | X                | X |                  |   
 XX | X              O | X |       O          |  0 points 
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+  X: MaX 

O on roll: 
Position ID: DwAAsN22AYgAAA 
Match ID: MAHgAAAAAAAA 
Evaluator:  Crashed 
        Win     W(g)    W(bg)   L(g)    L(bg)   Equity    Cubeful   
static:  76.8     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0    +0.534    +0.785    
 1 ply:  88.0     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0    +0.759    +0.923    
 2 ply:  79.7     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0    +0.593    +0.999    
 3 ply:  87.7     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    +0.754    +1.000    
 4 ply:  82.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    +0.639    +1.000 

BGBlitz has:

O on move:   (Plies are starting with 1, so it's gnubg 0/1/2-ply) 

1-ply  Green        83.0  0.0   0.0  

2-ply  Green        81.9  0.0   0.0  

3-ply  Green        84.4  0.0   0.0  


So BGBlitz too has some swinging between odd and even plies, but 
the amplitude is 2-4%, not 12%. Snowie seems to behave like BGBlitz,
just 2-3% swing.

MaX.