|
From: | Neil Robins |
Subject: | [Bug-gnubg] Two-Sided Bearoff DB and Cube Analysis |
Date: | Fri, 11 Dec 2009 06:14:52 -0000 |
In the position below I received a cube which, if
taken, is for the match. I have on disk the Two-Sided Bearoff DB for up to 11
chequers on 6 points, which gives:
Player
Opponent
Position 4049 6690 Cubeless
equity
: +0.5006
Owned cube : +0.7930 Centered cube : +0.7679 Opponent owns
cube :
+0.4452
It seems to me it is trivially easy to obtain from
the Cubeless equity that, if the game is played out for the match, my opponent
will win the match 75.03% of the time and my MWC is 24.97%. The rollout indeed
concurs with these figures and, for once, 0-ply agrees as well.
As you increase the number of plys from 1-ply
through to 7-ply, not only are all the figures wrong, but, there is a
straightforward relatiosnhip of every ply higher being just as bad or worse than
a ply lower. Analysis at 7-ply produces the worst result. Surely this is not
what should be expected, and shouldn't all plys be bringing the correct
figure here?
GNU Backgammon Position
ID:
tW0AAKjNAQAAAA
Match ID : AQFgAAAAAAAA +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2) OO | O O O O O | | | 0 points O | O O O | | | On roll O | O | | | O | | | | O | | | | | |BAR| |^ 3 point match X | | | | X | | | | X | | | | X | X X X X | | | X | X X X X X X | | | 0 points +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ X: Neil Rollout details:
Player gnubg owns 2-cube: 0.744 0.000 0.000 - 0.256 0.000 0.000 CL 62.26% CF 70.82% [0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF 0.00%] Player Neil owns 4-cube: 0.750 0.000 0.000 - 0.250 0.000 0.000 CL 75.03% CF 75.03% [0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF 0.00%] Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 25920 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 839486310 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] Cube analysis
0-ply cubeless MWC 62.55% (Money: +0.501) 0.750 0.000 0.000 - 0.250 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take 75.03% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 0.05%) 3. No double 72.29% ( -2.74%) Proper cube action: Redouble, take Cube analysis
1-ply cubeless MWC 62.28% (Money: +0.490) 0.745 0.000 0.000 - 0.255 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take 74.48% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 0.60%) 3. No double 71.73% ( -2.75%) Proper cube action: Redouble, take Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless MWC 62.28% (Money: +0.490) 0.745 0.000 0.000 - 0.255 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take 74.48% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 0.59%) 3. No double 70.73% ( -3.76%) Proper cube action: Redouble, take Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless MWC 62.28% (Money: +0.490) 0.745 0.000 0.000 - 0.255 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take 74.48% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 0.59%) 3. No double 70.64% ( -3.85%) Proper cube action: Redouble, take Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless MWC 61.99% (Money: +0.478) 0.739 0.000 0.000 - 0.261 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take 73.92% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 1.16%) 3. No double 70.60% ( -3.31%) Proper cube action: Redouble, take Cube analysis
5-ply cubeless MWC 61.79% (Money: +0.470) 0.735 0.000 0.000 - 0.265 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take 73.51% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 1.57%) 3. No double 70.48% ( -3.03%) Proper cube action: Redouble, take Cube analysis
6-ply cubeless MWC 61.77% (Money: +0.469) 0.735 0.000 0.000 - 0.265 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take 73.46% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 1.61%) 3. No double 70.44% ( -3.02%) Proper cube action: Redouble, take Cube analysis
7-ply cubeless MWC 61.67% (Money: +0.465) 0.733 0.000 0.000 - 0.267 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take 73.27% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 1.80%) 3. No double 70.34% ( -2.94%) Proper cube action: Redouble, take |
[Prev in Thread] | Current Thread | [Next in Thread] |