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[Bug-gnubg] Question on Luck Analysis
From: |
Ian Shaw |
Subject: |
[Bug-gnubg] Question on Luck Analysis |
Date: |
Tue, 14 Dec 2010 14:08:37 -0000 |
This query is prompted by a discussion arising during the Variance
Reduction Tournament taking place at Daily Gammon.
Below are the results from a single cubeless game where gnubg 0-ply
played itself, with a 0-ply analysis. This means that both sides are
judged to have played perfectly, and without a cube there can be no
discrepancies in luck caused by the cube.
In a game such as this, how can one side win a game without having +0.5
points of net luck? If neither side makes an error, then the only way to
get from 50% to 100% is to have 50% luck.
However, Blue has +0.270 luck and White had -.863 luck, giving Blue net
luck of +1.133 points, more than needed to win the game.
If both sides are perfect, shouldn't the luck-adjusted result be 0?
Gnubg is clearly reporting something other than what I expect. Can
anybody explain it?
Blue White
Chequer Play Statistics:
Total moves 26 25
Unforced moves 26 21
Unmarked moves 26 25
Moves marked doubtful 0 0
Moves marked bad 0 0
Moves marked very bad 0 0
Error total EMG (Points) +0.000 ( +0.000) +0.000
( +0.000)
Error rate mEMG (Points) +0.0 ( +0.000) +0.0
( +0.000)
Chequerplay rating Supernatural Supernatural
Luck Statistics:
Rolls marked very lucky 0 0
Rolls marked lucky 0 0
Rolls unmarked 26 24
Rolls marked unlucky 0 1
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 0
Luck total EMG (Points) +0.270 ( +0.270) -0.863
( -0.863)
Luck rate mEMG (Points) +10.4 ( +0.010) -34.5
( -0.035)
Luck rating None Bad dice,
man!
Overall Statistics:
Error total EMG (Points) +0.000 ( +0.000) +0.000
( +0.000)
Error rate mEMG (Points) +0.0 ( +0.000) +0.0
( +0.000)
Snowie error rate +0.0 ( +0.000) +0.0
( +0.000)
Overall rating Supernatural Supernatural
Actual result +1.000 -1.000
Luck adjusted result -0.133 +0.133
Cheers,
Ian Shaw
- [Bug-gnubg] Question on Luck Analysis,
Ian Shaw <=