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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: Bug-gnubg Digest, Vol 97, Issue 5

From: Julian Wilson
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: Bug-gnubg Digest, Vol 97, Issue 5
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2010 11:42:18 +0000

Excuse me if this has been mentioned - just caught this thread.

Is the 'LUCK Calculator' of these games engines based on the impact of the roll 
to the situation... i.e.  someone needing to escape two men two away from a 5 
prime would need to roll 2 1s then 2 6s in that order.

So does the Luck Caluculator - evaluate equity in the position BEFORE the roll 
then afterwards?  
Could a bad player roll a lucky roll play it in the wrong/bad way, and then 
have a low luck rating?

Hope this makes sense - just curious.



On 17 Dec 2010, at 17:59, Frank Berger wrote:

>> Maybe I'm missing something here, but gnubg's luck figures apply to
>> each player's rolls separately. Rolling a joker for player A can add
>> 3% to his luck, it does not take 3% away from his opponent's luck, so
>> there's no reason to assume they should be equal.  One player, playing
>> perfectly, could have a fairly low luck rating if the spread in
>> possible equities is small for all his rolls. Another player could
>> have a high luck rating if he rolls the least of all evil rolls (the
>> average roll leaves two blots, his roll only leaves one). He's lucky,
>> but he's not all that lucky, he still has a blot. Luck is the measure
>> of getting the most favourable of all possible rolls, not a measure of
>> game winning chances in and of themselves.
> the luck of the player doesn't have to be the same, but the addition of the 
> luck of both players could be calculated, in a perfect world, 
> by the skill of the players. Assume a game is a random walk on a line, where 
> the players start a certain position. Let's say you win against me in 52% of 
> the games. To win (the 1-pt match) you need 0.48 luck to move from .52 to 1.0 
> whereas I need .52 luck to go from .52 to 1.0, therefore the the sum of your 
> luck - my luck should be .52 if I win and .48 if you win.
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