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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: Bug-gnubg Digest, Vol 97, Issue 5

From: Julian Wilson
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: Bug-gnubg Digest, Vol 97, Issue 5
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2010 11:48:16 +0000

I didn't explain myself well.

What I meant to say is:

Is the LUCK rating calculation based on the 'ROLL' in the situation or is it 
based on the 'PLAY'  to the situation.?


On 18 Dec 2010, at 11:42, Julian Wilson wrote:

> Excuse me if this has been mentioned - just caught this thread.
> Is the 'LUCK Calculator' of these games engines based on the impact of the 
> roll to the situation... i.e.  someone needing to escape two men two away 
> from a 5 prime would need to roll 2 1s then 2 6s in that order.
> So does the Luck Caluculator - evaluate equity in the position BEFORE the 
> roll then afterwards?  
> Could a bad player roll a lucky roll play it in the wrong/bad way, and then 
> have a low luck rating?
> Hope this makes sense - just curious.
> thanks
> Julian
> On 17 Dec 2010, at 17:59, Frank Berger wrote:
>>> Maybe I'm missing something here, but gnubg's luck figures apply to
>>> each player's rolls separately. Rolling a joker for player A can add
>>> 3% to his luck, it does not take 3% away from his opponent's luck, so
>>> there's no reason to assume they should be equal.  One player, playing
>>> perfectly, could have a fairly low luck rating if the spread in
>>> possible equities is small for all his rolls. Another player could
>>> have a high luck rating if he rolls the least of all evil rolls (the
>>> average roll leaves two blots, his roll only leaves one). He's lucky,
>>> but he's not all that lucky, he still has a blot. Luck is the measure
>>> of getting the most favourable of all possible rolls, not a measure of
>>> game winning chances in and of themselves.
>> the luck of the player doesn't have to be the same, but the addition of the 
>> luck of both players could be calculated, in a perfect world, 
>> by the skill of the players. Assume a game is a random walk on a line, where 
>> the players start a certain position. Let's say you win against me in 52% of 
>> the games. To win (the 1-pt match) you need 0.48 luck to move from .52 to 
>> 1.0 whereas I need .52 luck to go from .52 to 1.0, therefore the the sum of 
>> your luck - my luck should be .52 if I win and .48 if you win.
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