|
From: | Ian Shaw |
Subject: | Re: [Bug-gnubg] Wrong luck adjusted result on Grandmaster analysis |
Date: | Mon, 5 Jan 2015 14:17:25 +0000 |
Hi Richard. The luck adjusted result looks OK to me. You had -12.342% luck and tophat had +35.705% luck. The actual result was you -50%, tophat +50%. The Luck-Adjusted result formula = Actual Result – Own Luck + Opponent’s Luck. Your luck-adjusted result = -50 - -12.342 + 35.705 = -1.953% Tophat’s luck-adjusted result = 50 – 35.705 + -12.342 = -1.953% In other words, without the luck, tophat would have got to 1.95% instead of +50%, and you would have got to -1.95% instead of -50%. His victory was almost entirely by luck. You aren’t the first person to find this confusing.
If the formula were instead (50 – Own Luck + Opponent’s Luck), we would have got 98.05% and 1.95% in your favour.
May be it’s the Actual Result that is the source of the confusion. If this were reported as +100 and 0, rather than +50 and -50, the current formula (Result – Own Luck +
Opponent’s Luck), would give 48.05% and 51.95%. This indicates that, with the luck removed, your opponent only managed to get from 50% to 51.95%. Again, his victory was almost entirely luck. I think that (50 – Own Luck + Opponent’s Luck) gives the most intuitive result. Does anyone know how the other two active bots, XG and BgBlitz, report the luck adjusted result? It might be sensible to standardize on a definition and use that. I’ve a
feeling that XG uses (50 – Own Luck + Opponent’s Luck), but this is only based on my hazy recollection of the discussions at DailyGammon when Miran ran some luck-adjusted tournaments. n
Ian From: bug-gnubg-bounces+address@hidden [mailto:bug-gnubg-bounces+address@hidden
On Behalf Of RICHARD BEAGLEY Version GNU backgammon 0.90.0 Aug 8 2011 via XQuartz 2.7.7 (xoorg-server 1.15.2) on MAC OSX 10.6.8 Analysis - grandmaster 3 ply This a single game result (3 point) with extreme differences in move, cube and luck ratings. I should have had a luck adjusted win! Is this a known bug and / or is my software out of date? Regards Richard Beagley (tregurtha) |
[Prev in Thread] | Current Thread | [Next in Thread] |