|
From: | Ian Shaw |
Subject: | Re: [Bug-gnubg] position: don't understand how gnubg calculates the odds for a very trivial position |
Date: | Mon, 31 Oct 2016 10:30:07 +0000 |
Hi Brian, You’re not the first to make that error, and you won’t be the last! Glad you’re enjoying gnubg.
n
Ian Shaw From: Bug-gnubg [mailto:bug-gnubg-bounces+address@hidden
On Behalf Of Brian Xinger Ok, so it's 10/36... sorry... Hope you believe me when I say I not *always* this stupid. I do have my moments though! On Thursday, October 27, 2016 11:51 AM, Brian Xinger <address@hidden> wrote: Hi, I've been playing against gnu-bg for a while, and every now and then I find myself struggling to understand how it judges some of my moves when I
look back at them with the analysis. I must say I learned quite a bit by playing against it and I can realistically see an improvement when playing against other people. I am well aware that intuition and "human way" of looking at probabilistic things sometimes
go against the hard numbers and so I generally try to keep an open mind, thinking the machine played millions of games, it must have it right. I can't, however, being a human after all, bring myself to stop questioning it, and today I got this one position
where for the life of me I can't see how it makes its call. This one is simple enough for me to do the math (so, really simple ;) ) Position (game attached) is trivial, bearing off it's the machine's turn and it has two pieces on slot 2 and has the turn to roll. I have a single
piece on slot 1, so I finish the game next move (if there is one). gnubg will win in the next roll unless it rolls a one not accompanied by another one, so 5 out of 36, right? Anything else makes it bear off the last two pieces and win. That gives me 0.13888
for gnubg to lose. gnubg doubles before rolling, I decline and in the analysis gnubg says I should've accepted and that my winning odds were 0.278. If the calculation is right I would love to understand why. What am I missing? The cube has no further say here since if it does roll a non-double
one it is 100% lost and if I roll or double it'll be the same thing, win single. Anyway, not sure how the list works, I just subscribed for this so if I am violating some policy I apologize. I hope this message finds someone willing
to look at it. Thank you for a great piece of software (even if it gets on my nerves by beating me more often than not ;) ) |
[Prev in Thread] | Current Thread | [Next in Thread] |