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| From: | Øystein Schønning-Johansen |
| Subject: | Re: Bug in rollout ? |
| Date: | Wed, 23 Sep 2020 22:33:29 +0200 |
On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 06:22:28PM +0200, Øystein Schønning-Johansen wrote:
> I strongly believe that this is a pretty simple position to play
For a neural net this is not so clear. With 7 men stacked on the 7 point
this is a position that will never happen in real play and is unlikely
in training. Neither will its immediate continuations. A plausible
adversarial example indeed.
If you look at the temperature map you will see how badly gnubg plays
many rolls on the first turn.
Using a one-sided bearoff database going to the 7 point instead of the 6
helps (and going to the 11 point should totally eliminate the issue),
but another issue appears : the transition from race net evaluation to
bearoff database evaluation. If the former overvalues the position and
its close continuations, X will tend not to move the checker from the 11
point further than the 8 point to stay with the more generous evaluator.
> I think that X (on roll) will lose about 15% gammon. It should not be
> hard to roll this out.
This is much less than that. Theodore in another follow-up got a quick
estimate of 2%. Since O needs doublets but X needs not getting them, one
can replace his 1/6 factor by 5/36 and get a slightly more accurate
number of about 1%, showing that your 2 ply rollout is much better than
0 ply but still far from perfect.
This is arguably a bug, but not a simple coding error : one (of
undoubtly many) weak spot in evaluations.
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