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## Re: [Bug-gnubg]

**From**: |
Douglas Zare |

**Subject**: |
Re: [Bug-gnubg] |

**Date**: |
Thu, 26 Jun 2003 23:08:27 -0400 |

**User-agent**: |
Internet Messaging Program (IMP) 3.2.1 |

Quoting Joseph Heled <address@hidden>:
>* > Isn't that less than 1.5 standard deviations? Or do you mean cubeless money*
>* > games?*
>* Yes. those are cubeless money games.*
In that case, the result is more statistically significant, and means a larger
difference in performance.
>* I thought the STD is *
>* sqrt(1/(p*(1-p)*N), and assuming p ~= 0.5, this gives 0.0007*
>* *
>* Perhaps I am wrong. *
That is roughly the standard deviation of the number of wins. However, the
standard deviation in the points per game is larger by more than a factor of 2,
since a single loss is -1 rather than 0, and there are gammons and backgammons.
>* How many games would you deem necessary?*
That depends on the purpose. If you want to conclude that 14 plays better than
13 on 0-ply with no cube, you probably have enough evidence to be very
confident of that. If you want to figure out how much stronger the 0-ply
evaluations are, the range of nonsurprising possibilities is still pretty large
compared with the advantage.
Douglas Zare