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[Bug-gnubg] real match winning chances

From: Misja Alma
Subject: [Bug-gnubg] real match winning chances
Date: Sat, 06 Dec 2003 20:54:36 +0100


There is a feature which I would very much like to have, and that, as far as
I can see, is not present in gnubg. That is that the 'real' match winning
chance would be shown in the analysis output.
With 'real' match winning chance I mean the chance I have against an
opponent based on the errors we both have made in the match that was
Right now I can see the error rate, which is also given in percentages. But
if I understand the code right then the error rate is calculated by
accumulating all the errors. If this total results in a percentage above
100% or below zero it is truncated.
I would like to have a percentage which is really between 0 and 100%.

The reason is that when I play for money on GamesGrid, I not only want to
know if I was a favourite but also if I was enough of a favourite to
compensate for the fee.
I can't trust the percentage gnubg gives because it is biased towards the
favourite, the same applies to Snowie( which sometimes really shows a match
winning chance of over 100%..).

I think the real match winning chance should be calculated by starting with
50% and then multiplying it after every error  with (1 - ErrorPercentage).
I could build this into my copy of gnubg, I think all that is needed is
initializing the 'unnormalized' index of the statContext error totals to .5,
and then in updateStatContext do the above mentioned multiplying instead of
deducting cost every time.
But then of course my changes would be lost every time I would do a check
out of the newest sources.
Also I can imagine that perhaps somebody else is interested to have this
statistic in gnubg? Perhaps as an extra option besides the stats that are
already given?


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