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Re: [Bug-gnubg] RE: Bug-gnubg Digest, Vol 80, Issue 6

From: Massimiliano Maini
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] RE: Bug-gnubg Digest, Vol 80, Issue 6
Date: Tue, 7 Jul 2009 10:44:03 +0200

address@hidden wrote on 06/07/2009 18:38:49:
> > From: Massimiliano Maini address@hidden wrote"
> > ...
> > In matchplay, imagine a situation where a very long match goes up to DMP
> > without
> > any particular luck for the two players. Then , at DMP bearoff, one roll a
> > super joker
> > and wins. In terms of Total Luck this will appear clearly (like a +50% in
> > MWC), but in
> > normalized luck this will not. The same situation in a much shorter match,
> > despite
> > having the same total luck (+50%) could have a "Go to Vegas" rating
> > instead of
> > a "lucky" or a "none" rating.
> > ...
>   Suppose that the first game in that match had also been decided by
> a superjoker. That game
> counted one towards the goal just like the last game. You just
> didn't realize its importance at the time.

That's true, but what about a joker that brings you a gammon win instead
of a normal win ? For sure it hasn't got the same value in game 1 of a
long match or at DMP ... Raw (unnormalized) luck must take into account
cube value and, for match, the score.

In money play, a superjoker with the cube at 4 is surely worth more than
the same superjoker with the cube at 2 ...
At the moment in gnubg, the "luck in EMG" associated to the two is the
same, which is fine by the definition of EMG luck. What is not fine (imo)
is that the luck rating is computed from the EMG luck.

I have handcrafted a simple example of a 2 games money session.
In each game there's only 1 bearoff position.
In game 1 white holds a 2 cube and gets a lucky roll, subsequent rolls
are nothing special.
In game 2 we have the same position with black and white swapped and with
the difference that the cube (owned by black) is at 4. They play the same
sequence of rolls (swapped, of course: black gets the lucky roll).

The two players have had, over the two games, the same normalized luck
and hence the same luck rating, but in terms of net luck (in points),
black has won more thanks to luck: its luck happened when the cube was
at 4 (for him) instead of at 2 (for white).

In the overall stats, the luck rating is the same for the two players
(Go to bed, in my example) but the luck adjusted result is not zero.

A player witnessing the session would tend to say that black has been
luckier than white, in agreement with the luck adjusted result and not
with the luck rating.

I can send the sgf file on demand.

On top of modifying the way the luck rating is computed (using raw luck
instead of normalized luck), I would also advise, in the Luck panel,
to write the two lines:

                              gnubg                MaX                

Luck total EMG (Points)       -0.597 ( -2.208)     -0.622 ( -1.498)
Luck rate mEMG (Points)       -85.3  ( -0.315)    -103.6  ( -0.250)


                              gnubg                MaX                

Luck total Points (EMG)       -2.208 ( -0.597)     -1.498 ( -0.622)
Luck rate Points (mEMG)       -0.315  ( -85.3)     -0.250 ( -103.6)

Since for most practical purposes, it's raw luck that matters and not
normalized luck. In the above, "Points" becomes "MWC" for match.


BTW it sucks that no attachment, no matter how small, can be sent to
the mailing list, can we configure this ?

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