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RE: [Bug-gnubg] Proposal - Luck rating

From: Massimiliano Maini
Subject: RE: [Bug-gnubg] Proposal - Luck rating
Date: Tue, 7 Jul 2009 11:37:03 +0200

address@hidden wrote on 06/07/2009 22:10:08:

> Bonus question. Can anyone come up with an EMG transformation that preserves
> the idea that net luck and net skill expressed in EMG, exactly and
> consistently replicate the match outcome (as it should, I contend, when
> expressed in MWC)?

If luck is computed at the same level than skill (e.g. both 0ply or both
2ply) and that level of play evaluates luck perfectly, you have that
NetLuck+NetSkill=100% in MWC (or = to the acutal result in points for money),
if both luck and skill are raw, not normalized.

However, even if EMG transformation is linear, it is so at a given score
and cube value. When you sum luck or skill values from different scores
or from different positions with same score but different cube values,
the overall transformation is not linear, sine it includes the effect of
the MET. Hence it is not possible that the overall sum of EMG values
matches the (normalized) actual result.

> The suggestion for reporting "net luck" is interesting as an addition. But I
> would not like to lose the reporting of raw luck in MWC. You can have a +20%
> net luck, but it FEELS very different as a player when that is +80% for you
> and +60% for the opponent versus -40% for you and -60% for the opponent!

We should indeed keep in the luck display normalized and raw luck.
I just proposed to use net luck in MWC/Points (instead of the "Luck rate
EMG") to compute the "Luck rating".

Notice that Net luck (in MWC or Points) is already used by gnubg in the
"Luck adjusted result".

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