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[Bug-gnubg] Luck analysis question

From: Albert Silver
Subject: [Bug-gnubg] Luck analysis question
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 14:48:35 -0300

Something is bugging me regarding the analysis that GNU and Snowie are
of exactly equal strength. I can't argue the math with you so I'll just
explain it:

GNU won the 100 match series quite convincingly, granted. It also
evaluated the relative luck of each player. Again, no argument. Its
2-ply analysis (the luck was done at 0-ply) will consistently say that
it played perfectly and that Snowie invariably screwed up at some degree
whether by a minuscule fraction or more. So ALL analysis it presents
comparing its play to Snowie's should reveal it is stronger than Snowie,
no? The analysis showed the players to be exactly equal, but what
exactly was analyzed? Did it analyze that neither player gave up more
equity than it benefitted luck so that the result was consistent. I.e. I
was 15% luckier but only gave up 1% equity throughout the match thus the
result is consistent. Also, wouldn't a 2-ply luck analysis, agreeing
with all of GNU's 2-ply plays, reveal it is in effect stronger than
Snowie? I'm not declaring it IS stronger just that such an analysis
would inevitably say as much.


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