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Re: Réf. : [Bug-gnubg] Understanding the stats

From: Albert Silver
Subject: Re: Réf. : [Bug-gnubg] Understanding the stats
Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 11:32:09 -0300

I don't think you are understanding the problem. If he was worse, but luckier, why is he the one with an advantage over me? Why should he have a luck adjusted advantage of +0.279 points per game over me when he plays *worse*?

Unless GNU is trying to convince me that it is better to play worse than my opponents, that way I'll have a bigger edge over them than if I were better.


On 9/22/06, address@hidden <address@hidden > wrote:

>I'm trying to understand the money game stats, but clearly am having
>no luck, so I'm requesting help.

Funny way to state your problem ... no luck ... :))

>I played a session, albeit poorly, which I lost 10 points to 13 over
>7 games. According to the analysis, I played better overall, better
>in checkers, and better with the cube. Despite this, and despite
>losing, I am told I was the luckier of the two. Highly disputable IMHO.
>                                      Opponent             Me
>Overall Statistics:
>Error rate (total)                    -3.523 ( -4.811)     -2.269
( -3.939)
>Error rate (per decision)              - 25.7 ( -0.035)      -14.2
( -0.025)
>Equiv. Snowie error rate               - 11.0                 -7.1
>Overall rating                        Casual player        Intermediate
>Actual result                          +3.000               -3.000
>Luck adjusted result                   +1.958               - 1.958
>Advantage (actual) in ppg             +0.4286              - 0.4286
>95% confidence interval (ppg)          3.1388               3.1388
>Advantage (luck adjusted) in ppg      +0.2797              - 0.2797
>95% confidence interval (ppg)          0.9709               0.9709

No, your opp was the luckier.
The actual result for him is +3.000 while the luck adjusted result for him
+1.958 : +1.958 < +3.000, this means that he had more luck than you.

Other way to see it, his ACTUAL advantage in ppg is +0.4286 (that is equal
to +3.000points / 7games), but his luck adjusted advantage in ppg is
+0.2797 :
+0.2797 < +0.4286, this means that he has been luckier than you.

But notice that the fact you played better has nothing to do with it.
You can play better (have a lower error rate) and be the luckier of the
Luck does not depend on how you play, it depends only on rolls.


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