|Subject:||Re: Réf. : [Bug-gnubg] Understanding the stats|
|Date:||Fri, 22 Sep 2006 11:32:09 -0300|
>I'm trying to understand the money game stats, but clearly am having
>no luck, so I'm requesting help.
Funny way to state your problem ... no luck ... :))
>I played a session, albeit poorly, which I lost 10 points to 13 over
>7 games. According to the analysis, I played better overall, better
>in checkers, and better with the cube. Despite this, and despite
>losing, I am told I was the luckier of the two. Highly disputable IMHO.
> Opponent Me
>Error rate (total) -3.523 ( -4.811) -2.269
>Error rate (per decision) - 25.7 ( -0.035) -14.2
>Equiv. Snowie error rate - 11.0 -7.1
>Overall rating Casual player Intermediate
>Actual result +3.000 -3.000
>Luck adjusted result +1.958 - 1.958
>Advantage (actual) in ppg +0.4286 - 0.4286
>95% confidence interval (ppg) 3.1388 3.1388
>Advantage (luck adjusted) in ppg +0.2797 - 0.2797
>95% confidence interval (ppg) 0.9709 0.9709
No, your opp was the luckier.
The actual result for him is +3.000 while the luck adjusted result for him
+1.958 : +1.958 < +3.000, this means that he had more luck than you.
Other way to see it, his ACTUAL advantage in ppg is +0.4286 (that is equal
to +3.000points / 7games), but his luck adjusted advantage in ppg is
+0.2797 < +0.4286, this means that he has been luckier than you.
But notice that the fact you played better has nothing to do with it.
You can play better (have a lower error rate) and be the luckier of the
Luck does not depend on how you play, it depends only on rolls.
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