* Øystein Johansen <address@hidden> [070705 09:23]:
> Achim Mueller wrote:
> >>From GammonU:
> >
> > BGB Jellyfish Snowie 4.5 GnuBG 0.14
> > BGB - 534 504 481
> > Jellyfish 466 - 428 407
> > Snowie 4.5 496 572 - 489
> > GnuBG 0.14 519 593 511 -
> >
>
> It's 25 point matches, isn't it?
>
> It looks like GNU Backgammon beats them all. Is that the right
> interpretation?
>
> This was about the result I would expect in a match series. The point is
> that the positions where GNU Backgammon outperforms Snowie is more
> frequent than the positions where Snowie outperforms GNU Backgammon.
>
> Would anyone estimate the standard deviation of these numbers?
If sqrt(a*b/1000) is correct than it's:
std.err sigma confidence
gnubg/bgb = 15.79 2.28 ==> 98,8%
gnubg/snowie = 15.81 1.39 ==> 91,8%
gnubg/jelly = 15.53 11.98 ==> 100,0% (well, nearly)
snowie/bgb = 15.81 0.51 ==> 69,5%
snowie/jelly = 15.64 9.21 ==> 100,0%
bgb/jelly = 15.77 4.31 ==> 100,0%
So we can be quite sure that jellyfish will be beat by all other
bots, we can be quite confident that gnubg is better than bgb, we can be
a little confident that gnubg is better than snowie.
Am I right ith these numbers?
Ciao
Achim
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