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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout

From: Achim Mueller
Subject: Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2007 23:36:19 +0200
User-agent: Mutt/1.5.9i

* Joseph Heled <address@hidden> [070705 14:25]:
> Standard error may be informative, but statistical importance matters
> more to me. I think it is clear you tell gnubg is better than Jelly
> from those number, but nothing more.

Well, I wrote a lot of nonsense today (my statistic lessons are 20 years
ago), but what about this conclusion:

gnubg 1623 over all wins
bgblitz 1519 overall wins

j.s.d = sqrt(27.3+27.3 + 27.38*27.38) ~ 54.6

(1623 - 1519)/54.6 ~ 1.90

1.90 --> 97.1% confidence that in the overall competition (1 bot against
three bots) gnubg is better than bgblitz. That's one way we compare the 
reliability of move rankings, so it should be right here also, shoudn't 



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